Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
